Preakness 2024
Finding the value plays with Muth scratched!
The Preakness stakes is traditionally won by horses on or close to the lead and this year the pace appears slow. There are only 8 horses entered which should also keep the pace modest.
Rain is in the forecast and if the track is wet you have to give an additional advantage to horses on or close to the lead. Let’s break down the field horse by horse.
Note, the post time odds the last couple years for the Preakness were bizarre with long shots badly over bet. This is a good race to bet on.
Mugatu - On bottom of chart and arguably slowest horse in the race. I expect this horse to finish 7th or 8th. Toss.
Uncle Heavy - Sprinter pedigree. Wide draw really hurt his chances in the Wood. A muddy track and inside draw help him. Useable at bottom of trifectas if race comes up sloppy. Otherwise toss.
Catching Freedom - On top of chart with coveted sA+ grade and $19 of value. I won’t talk anybody off of him. But he is going to take a lot of action and his running style is a big disadvantage. He benefited from a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby (all the speed collapsed). His Thorograph (TG) speed figure was as good as Mystik Dan’s. The field is small and a couple horses in here have no shot so Prat might get a good trip to set up this horse’s run. I think he is a strong play to hit the board.
Muth (scratched)
Mystik Dan - Needed dream rail trip and rough stretch drive for his competition to win the Kentucky Derby. As the Derby winner this horse is going to take a lot of action and will be a big underlay. It’s a feel good story with McPeek/Hernandez but my money will go elsewhere. Horse has good off track form in an unusual Southwest Stakes victory. But horse has not run well fresh in the past, was tired after the Ky Derby and is not fast enough to support his low odds. Fade this horse completely from the Exacta.
Seize the Grey - Very nice effort in Pay Day Mile when shortened up to one turn. But horse was badly beaten in Bluegrass Stakes and is likely not good enough. Playing against.
Just Steel - Inconsistent and heavily raced colt that tired badly after sitting unexpectedly 2nd in early parts of fast KY Derby pace. He was likely not used at all in stretch which makes him more likely to rebound in the Preakness. Rebounds happen in the Preakness if you study the race history and Lukas has had a couple of them. This horse has good tactical speed and will sit close to Imagination (or maybe even take the lead with Rosario?). I love this horse at 15-1 M/L and I don’t expect a lot of betting action for this one off the poor last race. Key this horse in your vertical exotics and take a shot to win.
Tuscan Gold - Kind of a buzz horse for Chad Brown making 4th lifetime start. Works are modest coming off an 8 week break (see the N in FITNESS column). Has some tactical speed and a superb route pedigree. Would like this horse better if it had a more recent prep. A poor wager at 8-1 M/L, I rank this horse below Uncle Heavy on a wet track. Fade.
Imagination - Firing Bullets for Bob and has never finished out of the exacta. Going to take a lot of action on Saturday as likely 2nd choice in wagering. The pace should be slow and this horse likely gets to the lead easily. Notice horse gets a green 1.1 for PFDS%. Will be very hard to run down and a must use in vertical exotics. Thorograph had the Santa Anita slow but Stronghold showing up in the Kentucky Derby after being close to the fast pace is a good sign.
Bottom Line: I’m going to favor horses on or close to the lead on top and those are #7 Just Steel and #9 Imagination. #3 is the only other horse to consider on top in serial wagers but will need an unlikely fast pace to win. #5 Mystik Dan is a contender but also an underlay and should be faded completely from the exacta. Move #2 Uncle Heavy up on an off track and use underneath.
Win Bet: #7 Just Steel
Serial Wagers: 3,7,9
Trifecta: 7,9 / 3,7,9 / 2,3,5,7,9
Good luck folks! #CHV